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How NOT to make decisions

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How to make better decisions? Most people would love to always make good decisions. While I don’t know how to ALWAYS decide well, a good start is to avoid falling into decision making traps.

But how can I avoid traps I don’t see? It’s probably a good idea to improve eyesight. Since it is easier to spot what I can name, here are two ideas to train my eyes by getting familiarized with typical decision making traps:

1. Study Wikipedia’s compendium of cognitive biases. E.g., select one type of bias, understand the concept, and for one day or one week practice seeing it in all kinds of situations.

2. Use the Named Cows iPhone App* to learn the concepts and share stories with friends (or just visit the Named Cows Facebook page to read cow-spotting stories)
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Or I can stay blind and next time I face an important decision will keep in mind some advice on how NOT to do it. For instance, I will avoid broadening my awareness of what matters (spotlight effect) and focus only on evidence to confirm my initial answer (confirmation bias). Later when I look back, lucky I got great results, I will realize I had known all the time it was the best decision (hindsight bias). If results were not so good, of course there was nothing I could have done (self-serving bias).

Wish us all great decisions… or great luck!

*The App is inspired by Neil Bearden‘s Management Decision Making course at INSEAD

Resolution with the flip of a coin

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Mediation. Upset client demanding a refund. Services provider willing to refund significantly less.

We had uncovered interests much beyond money (trust, reputation, self-esteem, fairness, social responsibility, time, relationships…), but parties remained focused on the dollars.

After two and a half hours, the bargaining dance (including splitting the difference at some point) had reduced the difference by more than 90%. The gap was now ridiculously small, but we had been stuck for a while. Not really an issue of money – it was a question of face: “I’ve conceded enough! Your turn now!”

Parties’ natural alternative was to proceed to court, which they seemed to agree would be a waste of time, energy, and probably money. Still, no movement.

As I considered bringing the mediation to a frustrating close with no agreement, one final idea, shared with a smile: “How about flipping a coin?”

The vendor seemed amused and immediately agreed. The client was initially puzzled (“Is he serious??”) but also agreed after I explained how it would work. Why not? The coin would take all responsibility and save both parties’ face. Resolution was now worth much more than the difference in money.
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Both did not seem too concerned about the outcome, signalling it was really a face issue. I felt they didn’t even look at the coin when it landed after that magic second spinning in the air in search for resolution.

Agreement!

I am not sure mediation training needs to include coin-flipping skills, but it would surely help to increase awareness of different resolution processes, their risks and rewards: for instance, “I cut you choose”, splitting the difference, getting an expert opinion*, and – why not – flipping a coin**.

* “Duelling Experts in Mediation and Negotiation: How to Respond When Eager Expensive Entrenched Expert Egos Escalate Enmity”, by John Wade, offers a good discussion on managing experts involved in mediation and negotiation, including considerations about splitting the difference and flipping a coin.

** See for instance Coin Flipping – Conflict Resolution.

The lazy fisherman

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Early morning. Beautiful unspoiled beach in Timor-Leste. Pleasant bright sun. A fisherman approaches, coming from the sea, where he had been fishing on foot. Carries four or five generous fishes and an open smile.

– Good morning! Looks like great fishing!

– Yes! Plenty of fish here!

– But why are you leaving already?

– I have enough for my family for today, so I’m going home.

– But you could fish much more!

– Why would I want to fish more than I need?

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– And then what?

– Don’t you see? Then you would be making a lot of money!

– Ok. And what would I do with all that money?

– Well, when you’re rich enough you could retire. And then you would spend all the time you wanted with your family and friends, doing what you like, enjoying life… being happy!

– Interesting… And what do you think I am going to do now??

The wise “lazy” fisherman knew the difference between interests and positions: his (and everyone’s?) key interest is to be happy. And he seemed very focused on pursuing it. Making money is often (if not always) a position I easily mistake for an interest. Most probably, it is just one of the options to meet my interests.